What Cam Ward’s crowning and Shedeur Sanders’ descent tells us about the NFL
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You don’t often see what has happened with Cam Ward and Shedeur Sanders.
Before the college season ended, Sanders seemed to be in contention with Ward for the top draft slot. But once evaluators sunk their teeth into Sanders and Ward’s film, the winner emerged — and maybe triumphantly. The Tennessee Titans have unofficially decided to go with Ward (and it seems like they made that decision a long time ago). It was clear at the combine.
In the media, we began to backpedal on Sanders when Ward became the clear-cut favorite for first overall. Because as soon as the Titans were out on Sanders, it came out that there wasn’t any one team that was in on him.
The Cleveland Browns at No. 2? Probably not.
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What about the Giants at third overall? Also, not likely to happen.
The Las Vegas Raiders, at No. 7, just re-upped Geno Smith. The Saints at No. 9 seem OK with Derek Carr (even if he’s worried they’re not), and multiple reports have indicated that New Orleans won’t take Sanders in the top 10.
The Pittsburgh Steelers or Los Angeles Rams could work. But it’s far from certain that Sanders will land in either place.
He currently looks like a QB prospect who will go lower than where he ranks on many media big boards, which is unusual. Typically, quarterbacks go higher than their big-board ranking because the position is so valuable. For that exact reason, Sanders has company at the back-end of the first round. There’s Ole Miss‘ Jaxson Dart, Alabama‘s Jalen Milroe and maybe even Tyler Shough, who an NFL executive told me was getting buzz to be a first-rounder. Sanders might not be enjoying the draft-stock inflation that comes with being a QB. But those guys are.
It was once wild to think Sanders would fall out of the top 3. Now it’s not totally shocking to suggest he could end up in Round 2 as QB4.
RELATED: ‘Not special to me’: Why Shedeur Sanders might experience a draft day slide
What’s happened? Well, it’s as much about the NFL as it is about Sanders.
Ward is not Patrick Mahomes — not even when comparing the two players as prospects. But on draft day, you’ll hear analysts make the comparison. Some of that is simply about marketing, selling a package that fans can understand and justify with the No. 1 overall pick. In reality, Ward would be the fourth QB in last year’s class — at best. Multiple people in the NFL that I’ve spoken to say that Ward would’ve been QB7 last year.
Now, last year’s class was hyped as much as any in recent memory, so it’s a lofty comparison. But it’s also important context, because Ward has glaring holes in his game when it comes to recognition, decision-making, accuracy and throw trajectory. Those are, ironically, all of Sander’s strengths. But for Ward, the excitement lies in his arm strength, size (6-foot-2, 220 pounds) and creativity.
That’s the way the NFL is.
NFL evaluators seem to value a player’s skill to create out of structure as much as his ability to create in structure. A part of that is because college systems rarely ask quarterbacks to make NFL progressions, and so it’s almost a waste to continue to value that skill. Because college reads are not even that translatable to pro reads. (But, again, Sanders demonstrated the ability to move through progressions and find the right spot for the football at Colorado.)
More than anything, it’s impossible to coach arm strength. It’s impossible to coach mobility. And out-of-structure creativity feeds off those two tools. In other words, it’s impossible to coach creativity — those big splash plays that Josh Allen, Mahomes and Lamar Jackson generate out of thin air. But it’s possible to coach up pocket prowess and progressions.
Teams are more willing to take a risk on Ward, a prospect they think they can coach up — as opposed to Sanders, who requires less coaching but may have less upside. Because it’s not just the Titans who like Ward. Recently, the Browns and Giants have explored trading up to No. 1, per reports. They’d only do that for one reason: to take the Miami QB.
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But maybe I’m casting Sanders as if he’s the perfect prospect. He’s not.
Even before you get into evaluating Sanders, there are problems. First, he’s Deion Sanders’ son. NFL teams will claim they’re embracing the younger generation’s flamboyance, but the NFL is still conservative and uncomfortable with change. So the Sanders name is likely to make some teams jumpy. Shedeur will bring a tremendous amount of media attention just based on his name and his father’s legacy. Then there’s the offensive context from Colorado: tons of screen passes and no pass protection. So the offense didn’t always show what Shedeur could or couldn’t do. There were too many limitations.
Once you get past all that, you see a solid college quarterback who understands the game and places the ball well. But he’s one who can’t escape the pocket, who can’t rifle the ball into tight windows and who can’t make something happen when the play breaks down. He’s a statuesque pocket passer.
He’s not exactly boring. But he’s not exactly exciting.
And that almost seems strange given how exciting he is off the field with his watches, jewelry and cameras. But that’s a part of the problem, it seems. For NFL teams, his lack of flash on the field doesn’t mix well with the flash off it. To make matters worse, Sanders’ attitude — his answers to interview questions — has put some teams off. Some think that’s linked to the fact that he’s a Black quarterback, but whatever the reason, anonymous coaches are criticizing Sanders’ pre-draft interviews.
Often, the final assessment of a QB comes down to identifying at least one thing that he does better than his peers. I’m not sure Sanders has one quality that sets him apart.
Ward is the most creative with the strongest arm. Dart might be the most efficient blend of passer and runner, with a unique efficiency and nose for picking up first downs on the ground. Milroe is the best athlete, an elite playmaker with the ball in his hands. Shough is the best pure thrower. Sanders is good at a lot of things, but he’s not great at anything. And while his presence brings fireworks off the field, he doesn’t necessarily bring them on the field.
The uncertainty around Ward (accuracy, decision-making) hasn’t been enough to create uncertainty in his draft stock. And the certainties around Sanders (accuracy, decision-making) aren’t enough to create certainty in his draft stock.
But it shows you what the NFL wants right now. And that’s Ward.
Prior to joining FOX Sports as an NFL reporter and columnist, Henry McKenna spent seven years covering the Patriots for USA TODAY Sports Media Group and Boston Globe Media. Follow him on Twitter at @henrycmckenna.
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