At the end of February, the Trump administration decided to exempt $397 million in security assistance to Pakistan from its massive foreign aid cuts. The funds will be allocated to a program that monitors Pakistan’s U.S.-made F-16 fighter jets—to make sure that they are used for counterterrorism, and not for action against India.

The United States has suspended most security aid for Pakistan since January 2018, early in President Donald Trump’s first term. With strong critics of Pakistan now in the White House and strategic focus shifting elsewhere since the U.S. withdrawal from Afghanistan, Washington’s partnership with Islamabad isn’t a priority. Setting aside funding for Pakistan of all places seems like a striking choice.

But it makes sense from the Trump administration’s perspective. Just days after news broke about the F-16 monitoring program, in March, Trump delivered a joint address to Congress in which he thanked Pakistan for helping the United States capture an Islamic State militant involved in an attack that killed U.S. troops in Kabul during the 2021 military withdrawal.

Washington has signaled that it sees Islamabad as a helpful if limited partner in tracking down terrorists that target U.S. citizens.

What happens if the Trump administration concludes that Pakistan is cheating with its F-16s? In 2019, India claimed that it shot down one of the U.S.-made jets during a military clash with Pakistan. At the time, FP reported that Trump administration officials said none of Pakistan’s F-16s were missing—though they did convey their unhappiness with how they were being used.

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Michael Kugelman

In his second term so far, Trump is more aggressively bringing U.S. foreign policy in line with his America First approach—which means that any U.S. foreign assistance must directly advance U.S. interests. So, if the administration finds that Pakistan isn’t holding up its end of the bargain, Washington may not go as easy on it this time around.

That isn’t what Pakistani officials want given how hard they have worked to build a new counterterrorism partnership with the United States, as well as to appeal to Washington on other issues, from untapped critical minerals to cryptocurrency.