5 things to watch for on NBA Draft lottery day

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On the other hand, a team like the Utah Jazz, who also have a 14% probability at the top pick after ending the season with the league’s worst record, could pass on Harper because they already have a plethora of young ball-dominant guards. Instead, they could select Harper’s college teammate, Ace Bailey, a lengthy wing with a high offensive ceiling. 

The same goes for the Philadelphia 76ers, who are set at point guard with Tyrese Maxey and would prefer to add complementary pieces rather than a score-first guard; and the Hornets, who don’t have a need for Harper if they want to continue building around guard LaMelo Ball. 

2. OKC again?! Why Philly is sweating

Before the start of the 2024-25 NBA season, the Philadelphia 76ers were arguably in the same tier as Eastern Conference juggernauts such as the Boston Celtics and Cleveland Cavaliers. Being in the lottery wasn’t in their radar. But, things went awry. Superstar Joel Embiid never returned to full health, playing in just 19 games, while Paul George had an inconsistent campaign after signing as a free agent in the summer. The 76ers tried to patch things together, relying on Maxey to keep them afloat while they waited for Embiid to return to MVP form. 

When that didn’t happen, the Sixers realized they had to pull the plug on the season. That’s because the 76ers would only retain their first-round selection if it fell within the top six. If not, it would go to the Oklahoma City Thunder, who, under general manager Sam Presti, have consistently built up an arsenal of draft picks that include their own and their opponents’ through savvy trades. 

Wanting to control their pick and keep it from the Thunder, the 76ers opted to shut down Embiid, and then, when Maxey re-injured a sprained finger on April 9, they took extra precautions and sat him for the rest of the season, too. With their top two players out, the 76ers finished the season 24-58, impressively tanking their way to the fifth-worst record. 

Now, the odds are in their favor to keep their pick and add a young piece to help them re-tool. But, there’s not much room for error. If just two teams above them get lucky and jump the 76ers, they will lose the pick to the Thunder. 

That scenario would be an abject disaster for Philadelphia as it would have wasted a season with Maxey and Embiid hobbled by injuries, only to then lose its draft pick. For OKC, it would be a pleasant surprise, as it ended the season as the No. 1 seed in the Western Conference and could still have high draft capital. Therefore, Thunder fans will watch the lottery ready to laugh like evil villains should the lottery balls bounce in their favor.

3. Could the Spurs actually get Flagg?

The simple answer is, yes. Anything can happen during the lottery. San Antonio has a 6.0% chance of getting the top pick, which is almost double what Atlanta had last year when it won. 

In that scenario, the Spurs could pair Flagg with a core of Victor Wembanyama and Stephon Castle, and be on their way to having a third straight Rookie of the Year on their roster, and be ready to compete in the Western Conference. 

Watching where the Spurs land on Monday will be a fun storyline. But, it will also be important to watch what they do in the weeks after the lottery, as they’ll have two selections in the top-14 and could use that capital to enter the Giannis Antetokounmpo trade discussions. 

4. Best fit for Flagg?

Let’s call Atlanta winning last year’s lottery a fluke and say that one of the favorites will win this year’s edition. So, out of the Jazz, Wizards, and Hornets, where would we like to see Flagg land the most? 

The Hornets are the best fit for Flagg. A Duke product, he wouldn’t have to travel far. Then, there’s the basketball side of things. Flagg’s athleticism would make him a perfect lob partner for Lamelo Ball. Flagg’s defense would also be helpful for a team built around Ball, a minus defender. Flagg also wouldn’t be required to handle the ball and initiate the offense, as Ball is one of the game’s best passers and Brandon Miller, the No. 2 pick in 2023, is a dynamic on-ball scorer. 

On the Jazz and Wizards, Flagg would be expected to shoulder the bulk of responsibility on both sides of the ball. He’s capable of doing so, but the Hornets roster fits his talents, and his skills are something the Hornets’ current core lacks. 

5. Things get worse for the Suns (and better for the Rockets).

PSA for Suns fans: Don’t tune into Monday’s lottery unless you want to torment yourself and see the repercussions of Houston acquiring your pick as part of the deal that brought Kevin Durant from Brooklyn. Unfortunately for Phoenix, there’s not much to be excited about on Monday. While Phoenix ended the season 36-46, on par with lottery teams, Houston has the rights to its 2025 first-round pick regardless of where it lands.

So, Rockets fans, you’re in a similar boat to the Thunder. You watched your team exceed expectations, finishing second in the Western Conference in the regular season, and now you potentially get another young player. Unlike the Thunder, though, the Rockets would retain this pick wherever it falls. So, yes, there is a 3.8% chance it becomes the No. 1 overall pick and Flagg goes to a team that won 52 games this past season. 

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