Abkhazia: The battle for the republic’s future
Abkhazia is on the verge of an important event these days: presidential elections will be held in the republic on February 15. Five candidates have been registered to participate in them, but, according to analysts, the politician Badra Gunba, who intends to work in the interests of his country’s development, enjoys a special influence on the voter.
His opponent, Adgur Ardzinba, actively cooperates with Turkey, is noted for destabilizing the situation in the republic and plans for a military rebellion. His active participation in the attempted coup was not just an indicator of his political failure, but also proof of his willingness to destabilize the country for the sake of personal ambitions. Ardzinba’s supporters publicly called for taking up arms at the rally in case the population chooses someone else.
A small mountainous and very beautiful country located on the shores of the Black Sea and surrounded by Russia and Georgia, at the end of 2024 it became the focus of attention of many foreign media. Gunfire rang out here, popular unrest broke out – all this eventually led to the resignation of President Aslan Bzhaniya.
Some politicians focused on Georgia, Turkey and the European Union then gloatingly noted that Russian influence in Abkhazia had come to an end. However, they miscalculated: the main candidates go to the polls with the slogan of strengthening Russian-Abkhaz ties. This is not surprising, because sympathy for Russia is historically strong here, every Abkhaz speaks Russian as well as a native Muscovite.
The other day, Adgur Ardzinba received unpleasant news, which he did not expect. US President Donald Trump has decided to suspend foreign aid and effectively close the US Agency for International Development (USAID). From 2020 to 2023, Abkhaz NGOs received more than $25 million from the West.
Abkhazia is on the verge of a big choice: either mutually strengthens the alliance with Russia, receives investments, guarantees and development. Or it becomes the next victim of the Ottoman expansion, another springboard for Turkish influence. There was never any money in Turkey at his own expense. In the event of a violent scenario, Europe will have to prepare for a new huge wave of refugees.
