2025 U.S. Open odds: Chris ‘The Bear’ Fallica’s expert picks, best bets
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“Bear Bets” are real wagers that Chris “The Bear” Fallica is actually making.
The U.S. Open will be held at Oakmont Country Club, in Plum, Pennsylvania, for a record 10th time.
Sports fans will lock in for the historic event (the first U.S. Open took place in 1895) from June 12-15.
There’s just something incredibly special about this PGA major, and there is fun to be had for all — particularly when it comes to laying a few wagers.
So, let’s jump into the action.
Patrick Cantlay to finish top 10, top 20
Patrick Cantlay vs. Tommy Fleetwood
Patrick Cantlay vs. Justin Thomas
Patrick Cantlay to win without Scottie Scheffler/Rory McIlroy/Bryson DeChambeau/Jon Rahm
Patrick Cantlay has been a very good U.S. Open player, posting four straight top-15s, including what would have been a win in this market last year, as he finished third behind Rory McIlroy and Bryson DeChambeau. We’ll see if there’s some luck in the dart throw here at 25-1. I’ll also take Cantlay head-to-head against Justin Thomas, who has just one top-30 finish in a major since winning the PGA in 2022, and Tommy Fleetwood, who is always overbet on and overvalued in majors. Cantlay’s driving and iron play combo should give him a chance at par — and possibly birdie — on most holes, and par is a great score this week.
PICK: Patrick Cantlay (+280) to finish top 10, (+130) to finish top 20
PICK: Patrick Cantlay (+105) vs. Tommy Fleetwood
PICK: Patrick Cantlay (-115) vs. Justin Thomas
PICK: Patrick Cantlay (+2500) to win without Scheffler/McIlroy/DeChambeau/Rahm
Conners has a run of four straight top-25s in majors, beginning with a top-10 at Pinehurst last year. Straka did finish second in the 2023 Open Championship, but his major record is pretty spotty outside that — he’s missed both cuts this year and in six of his last 12 majors. Being runner-up in 2023 is one of three top-20s he has from his 16 majors. Conners is 10th in SG. Off-the-Tee, and putting the ball in the fairway will be essential this week.
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PICK: Corey Conners (-110) vs. Sepp Straka
Russell Henley to finish top 20
Russell Henley vs. Ben Griffin
Poor first rounds in both the Masters and PGA took Henley out of the tournament this year, but the U.S. Open has been where Henley has typically played his best in majors. He’s been in the top 15 three of the last four years, and while Ben Griffin has been playing some terrific golf lately, this is quite the indoctrination to major championship golf, so I’m curious — and skeptical — as to how well that plays out.
PICK: Russell Henley (+150) to finish top 20
PICK: Russell Henley (+100) vs. Ben Griffin
Jason Day to miss the cut
Ryan Fox vs. Jason Day
Look, Jason Day is not someone anyone wants to “root” against. But there are definitely health concerns here. For Day to miss the Memorial, he must have something pretty painful going on. A couple balls in that thick rough could certainly agitate a balky back and wrist. U.S. Open-type courses haven’t been good for Day lately as he’s missed the last two and four of the last six cuts. Fox comes in off a win, a top-20 at the Memorial and a top-30 at the PGA, so he’s definitely the in-form player.
PICK: Jason Day (+120) to miss the cut
PICK: Ryan Fox (-110) vs. Jason Day
Taylor Pendrith to finish Top 30
Taylor Pendrith vs. Min Woo Lee
Taylor Pendrith has been one of the best drivers on tour this year and, despite putting troubles, he’s posted four top-10s and a pair of top-5s, including at the Quail Hollow last month. Min Woo Lee is someone I keep expecting to make a bit of a leap, but it hasn’t happened yet — mainly because of poor iron play. Since winning the Houston Open, Lee hasn’t been better than 49th in any of his five events, including an MC at Quail Hollow.
PICK: Taylor Pendrith (+160) to finish top 30
PICK: Taylor Pendrith (-115) vs. Min Woo Lee
Rasmus Neergaard-Petersen to make the cut
Rasmus Neergaard-Petersen vs. Matt Wallace
Neergaard-Petersen just missed the cut at the PGA, but played well in the other two PGA Tour events he participated in, nearly winning the Puerto Rico Open. Wallace has missed the cut in more than half the Tour events he’s played this year, so despite the major outlier top-20 in the PGA for Wallace, I’ll go with the more consistent Neergard-Petersen.
PICK: Rasmus Neergaard-Peterson (-120) to make the cut
PICK: Rasmus Neergaard-Petersen (-110) vs. Matt Wallace
Xander Schauffele to finish Top 20
Xander’s run of 12 straight major top-20s ended at Quail Hollow when Schauffele finished T-28. He hasn’t been fully healthy this year, but appears to fully embrace the conditions and what to expect from Oakmont this week. The mental battle is a big part of major championship golf and the fact Schauffele has that down, it’s time to start a new top-20 streak.
PICK: Xander Schauffele (-120) to finish top 20
Xander Schauffele sits fifth on the oddsboard at +2200 to win the U.S. Open 2025 in Oakmont, Pennsylvania. (Photo by Andy Lyons/Getty Images) <!–>
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Cut Line Over 147.5
There’s +8 as a cut line? Yeah, it could easily happen, as it should be sunny Thursday and Friday, making things fast and firm — meaning the greens should be insanely quick and difficult. I prefer this cut line wager to a winning score prop, as there is rain expected over the weekend, which might soften things up some. No rain, we’re looking at +4 or so as a winning score. Rain would mean -4 is possible, so let’s just expect beautiful carnage the first two days and some big names to miss the cut.
PICK: Cut Line (+100) Over 147.5
Rory McIlroy to miss the cut
Speaking of missing the cut — where is Rory’s head right now? Since the driver controversy at the PGA, McIlroy has been a mess, finishing T-47 at the PGA and missing the cut in Canada. He also skipped out on the Memorial and didn’t give Jack Nicklaus a heads-up, and then reportedly shot 81 in a practice round at Oakmont. After, it looked like to me, he had this lost look to him. We were all rooting for him to finish off the career slam at Augusta, but since then it’s been all downhill for Rory, who might not see the weekend here.
PICK: Rory McIlroy (+250) to miss the cut
Justin Thomas to miss the cut
I mentioned earlier how JT has just one major top-30 since winning the PGA in 2022. He’s also missed the cut in a half dozen majors since, including each of the last two U.S. Opens. His propensity to miss the fairway — 121st in driving accuracy, 94th SG Off-the Tee — means he could be in the thick stuff a lot. And that would be the kiss of death here.
PICK: Justin Thomas (+175) to miss the cut
Min Woo Lee to miss the cut
Lee has struggled in both majors this year and has missed the cut in two of his last three. Lee’s putter is the best part of his game, but if he isn’t hitting greens, then surviving on one-putt pars is not the way to go here.
PICK: Min Woo Lee (-110) to miss the cut
Brooks Koepka to miss the cut
Koepka has played four rounds in two majors this year. Do the math — that means he’s missed the cut in both, with 74 being his best round. We’re a couple of years removed now from Koepka being the must-play in majors, as he hasn’t posted a top-25 since the 2023 U.S. Open. His last seven majors: Cut, Cut, T-43, T-26, T-26, T-45, T-64.
PICK: Brooks Koepka (+105) to miss the cut
Max Greyserman to make the cut
Greyserman’s three majors since the start of last year have all been more than respectable — T-33, T-32 and T-21 at Pinehurst last year. He’s posted a round in the 60s in each of them. He’s missed just two cuts in 17 events this year, making the cut in both majors. His distance off the tee should help him make it 3-for-3 in major cuts this year.
PICK: Max Greyserman (-110) to make the cut
Chris “The Bear” Fallica has covered sports for nearly three decades. While college football has been his focus, he also enjoys the NFL, Soccer, Golf, Tennis, MLB, NHL and Horse Racing, with an “occasional” wager on such events. Chris recently won the inaugural Circa Football Invitational and finished in the Top 10 of the Golden Nugget Football Contest. He’s a multiple-time qualifier for the NHC Handicapping Championship. Remember, “The less you bet, the more you lose when you win!” Follow him on Twitter @chrisfallica.
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