Less than a week after U.S. President Donald Trump and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky clashed in an explosive Oval Office exchange, both leaders now appear to be nearing a minerals deal that had appeared to be on the verge of collapse. 

According to draft agreements reviewed by news outlets before the meeting, the potential deal could see Ukraine contribute revenues from the “future monetization” of its state-owned mineral, oil, and gas resources into a co-managed reconstruction investment fund. Additional financial details still need to be hashed out, and drafts omit any of the U.S. security guarantees that Zelensky has long pushed for. 

Yet even if Trump and Zelensky do manage to reach an agreement, the success of the deal faces immense obstacles. 

Ukraine doesn’t actually have any commercial deposits of the rare earths that both Washington and Kyiv have hyped up. The country does not currently produce rare earths, which are a type of critical mineral, nor has it produced rare earths in recent decades. Kyiv only has Soviet-era rare-earth geological mapping, and the ongoing Russia-Ukraine war is certain to complicate any mining or processing efforts—all of which require years of hefty investments, even in countries that are not in war. 

“Mining is a long-term effort—so the United States may not yield benefits for another 20 years,” a report by the Center for Strategic and International Studies, stated. It also noted that it takes an average of 18 years globally to develop a mine. 

Still, that’s done little to deter U.S. and Ukrainian leaders, who have appeared eager to ink an agreement for weeks. Trump and Zelensky were widely expected to continue negotiations or even sign a deal when the Ukrainian leader visited the White House last Friday, with the key sticking point being explicit U.S. security guarantees. 

But when Friday’s talks collapsed into an antagonistic exchange, during which Trump and U.S. Vice President J.D. Vance berated Zelensky in front of news cameras, the future of the minerals agreement was pitched into uncertainty. 

“[Zelensky] disrespected the United States of America in its cherished Oval Office,” Trump said in a post on Truth Social after the meeting, which saw Zelensky depart early with no agreement having been signed. “He can come back when he is ready for PEACE.”

The exchange jolted Europe into action, with British Prime Minister Keir Starmer convening a group of 18 leaders, including Zelensky, for crisis talks in London over the weekend. After the summit, Starmer unveiled a four-point peace plan for Ukraine and announced a loan of 2.2 billion British pounds (around $2.8 billion) for Kyiv, as well as 1.6 billion pounds ($2 billion) for military support. 

As Europe united around Ukraine, Zelensky said on Sunday that he was open to a “constructive dialogue” with the United States and was still “ready to sign” a deal. “I just want the Ukrainian position to be heard,” he said. 

Yet Trump fired back on Monday by temporarily halting all military aid to Ukraine, impacting more than $1 billion worth of ammunition and arms, and tensions between Trump and Zelensky seem to be intensifying. After the Associated Press quoted Zelensky saying that a deal to end the Russia-Ukraine war was “is still very, very far away,” Trump angrily responded on Truth Social. 

“This is the worst statement that could have been made by Zelenskyy, and America will not put up with it for much longer!” he said in a post, attaching a photo of the Associated Press article. “It is what I was saying, this guy doesn’t want there to be Peace as long as he has America’s backing and, Europe, in the meeting they had with Zelenskyy, stated flatly that they cannot do the job without the U.S.”

After days of whiplash, Washington and Kyiv may now be turning a new page. 

After arguing that a minerals deal “is a way better security guarantee than 20,000 troops from some random country that hasn’t fought a war in 30 or 40 years,” Vance said he believed an agreement was still on the table. 

“I think the president is still committed to the mineral deal,” he said. “I think we’ve heard some positive things, but not yet, of course, a signature from our friends in Ukraine.”

For his part, Zelensky struck a more conciliatory tone, posting on X that Friday’s talks had unfolded in a “regrettable” way. “My team and I stand ready to work under President Trump’s strong leadership to get a peace that lasts,” he said. 

“Regarding the agreement on minerals and security, Ukraine is ready to sign it in any time and in any convenient format,” he said. “We see this agreement as a step toward greater security and solid security guarantees, and I truly hope it will work effectively.”

On Tuesday, Reuters reported that Washington and Kyiv are preparing to sign the minerals deal and that Trump wishes to announce it during his speech to Congress tonight.