Trump Isn’t Gaining Traction in the Middle East
Analysis
Trump Isn’t Gaining Traction in the Middle East
Ten thinkers on the start of the U.S president’s second term.
Klawe Rzeczy illustration for Foreign Policy/Getty Images
This article is part of a collection on the second-term president’s approach to the world. Read the full package here.
Measuring a U.S. president by their first 100 days—a time-honored tradition—has always struck me as arbitrary. Still, President Donald Trump promised to do a lot in the three months after his inauguration, and as a Beltway globalist, I don’t have much of a choice but to evaluate his approach to the Middle East.
Trump came into his second term like a lion, but he now looks more and more like a lamb. Yes, he has ordered the U.S. military to put an end to the Houthi threat to the Red Sea (and to Israel), which I support. Yet he hasn’t gotten a lot of traction on the region’s other big issues.
Measuring a U.S. president by their first 100 days—a time-honored tradition—has always struck me as arbitrary. Still, President Donald Trump promised to do a lot in the three months after his inauguration, and as a Beltway globalist, I don’t have much of a choice but to evaluate his approach to the Middle East.
Trump came into his second term like a lion, but he now looks more and more like a lamb. Yes, he has ordered the U.S. military to put an end to the Houthi threat to the Red Sea (and to Israel), which I support. Yet he hasn’t gotten a lot of traction on the region’s other big issues.
Trump forced Israel and Hamas to accept a cease-fire that was negotiated by former U.S. President Joe Biden, but the U.S. president and his emissary Steve Witkoff have not managed to build on it so far. Instead, the White House now supports a renewed Israeli offensive in the Gaza Strip that is intended to pressure Hamas to give up its remaining hostages or to destroy the terrorist group, depending on who is talking.
When it comes to Iran, Trump’s bellicose rhetoric is the surest sign that he does not want to use military force against the regime. The U.S. president’s demands on Iran—dismantling its nuclear program, ending support for its proxies, and greatly reducing its missile forces—did not survive first contact between Witkoff and Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi.
It now seems like Trump is willing to agree to a deal that looks quite like the one that he breached in May 2018: the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA). Maybe the JCPOA will be renamed the Trump Comprehensive Plan of Action and declared the greatest arms control agreement of all time. That could be a good thing for global peace, but it also might only kick the can down the road and give a lifeline to an awful regime in Tehran.
Read More
What Would a Military Strike on Iran Mean for the Middle East?
An attack by the United States or Israel would have profound effects on domestic Iranian politics, the strategy of U.S. Gulf allies, and broader regional dynamics.
But that likely won’t matter to Trump, who only seems interested in getting a deal. Relatedly—remember expanding the Abraham Accords to Saudi Arabia? He was going to make that happen. It isn’t Trump’s fault that Saudi Arabia is reconsidering its willingness to normalize relations with Israel amid the war in Gaza, but building on his signature foreign-policy achievement is no longer possible.
It is hard to achieve much in 100 days, but Trump set himself up by claiming that there would be a lot of winning in the Middle East. Maybe it’s me, but it still feels like a lot of people are losing.
Steven A. Cook is a columnist at Foreign Policy and the Eni Enrico Mattei senior fellow for Middle East and Africa studies at the Council on Foreign Relations. His latest book is The End of Ambition: America’s Past, Present, and Future in the Middle East. X: @stevenacook
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