Dodgers vs. Mets roundtable: Does Juan Soto make New York favorites in NLCS rematch?

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For that reason, I still think the talent of a full-strength Dodgers team is unparalleled. But for now, their diminished pitching staff is extremely susceptible. And while they’ve still piled up wins, at no point have they looked like the overpowering team we expected to see. They seem to be treating the start of the season a bit like a dress rehearsal, and it’s not always easy to flip a switch, no matter how good a team should be on paper.

Thosar: The Mets may have closed the talent gap on paper by signing a generational hitter like Juan Soto to hit between Francisco Lindor and Pete Alonso, and by engineering Mark Vientos‘ breakout season last year (and perhaps Brett Baty’s success’ this year). But the way the Mets offense is dragging its feet since pretty much the start of May is not indicative of how the lineup hits when its performing at its best. Just like Alonso’s transcendent April (.343 batting average, 1.132 OPS) was unsustainable, so is the current lack of production from the Mets’ Big Three. That being said, the Mets pitching staff isn’t stacked with superstars, but it has boasted the best ERA in the major leagues all season. We’ve yet to see the 2025 Mets operating as effectively and powerfully as they’re capable of, and they still spent six weeks in first place in one of the toughest divisions in baseball. The pieces are there. But the execution, apparently, needs time.

2. In 2024, the Mets’ rotation was basically average, but swapping out Luis Severino (100 ERA+), Sean Manaea (112 ERA+) and Jose Quintana (104 ERA+) for a healthy Kodai Senga (NL-leading 271 ERA+), Clay Holmes (124 ERA+) and Griffin Canning (157 ERA+) has done wonders for them in the early going. Holmes thrived in relief for the Yankees the last few years before the Mets converted him to start, and Canning escaped the gravitational pull of the Angels this offseason — is there any reason to believe this trio can keep pitching above their preseason expectations?

Kavner: Can that trio continue to produce better than preseason expectations? Absolutely. Will those three remain at this elite level all year? Probably not. I see some regression ahead, but we’re not in April anymore, so you can’t just brush off the stunning, MLB-best 2.83 starters ERA that the Mets have amassed before they’ve even gotten Sean Manaea and Frankie Montas back.

Holmes’ expanded arsenal has turned him into a legit starter. He has gone six innings in each of his four starts this month, though it remains to be seen how he holds up as the innings pile up. Nothing about Griffin Canning’s underlying numbers suggest a 5-1 record and a 2.47 ERA, but he’s keeping the ball on the ground better than ever before and attacking the strike zone. Senga’s ability to keep the ball in the park is noteworthy — he has allowed one home run all year — and his ghost fork is nasty, but his National League-best 1.43 ERA is nearly two runs lower than his expected ERA. Clearly, general manager David Stearns and the Mets’ pitching department know what they’re doing and this group is way better than I anticipated, even if I don’t expect it to remain the league’s best all season.

Thosar: If there’s one thing I learned not to do after the success of the Mets pitching staff (yet again!) this year, it’s to put any expectations on a rotation constructed by David Stearns. Last season, too, baseball analysts widely believed the Mets were in a reset year because of all the one-year deals with pitchers who were trying to bounce back after down years. Then they ended up falling two wins short of a trip to the World Series. With more surprisingly effective performances from starters like Holmes and Canning this season, the Stearns-era Mets are becoming known for signing a bunch of rag-tag arms, playing to their strengths, and squeezing out the most juice from those pitchers. If there was any doubt about Canning, who allowed the most earned runs (99) in the American League last year, much of that was erased after he held the Yankees to two runs over 5.1 innings over the weekend. His start against the Dodgers will be another one to watch.

3. As for the Dodgers’ rotation, it’s a mess, but that didn’t stop them from winning the World Series last October either. What’s your expectation for it going forward? Will Roki Sasaki come back healthy and throw strikes? How much can the Dodgers rely on Clayton Kershaw? On Shohei Ohtani, whenever he returns to the mound? Will the bullpen survive its present workload long enough for the answers to matter?

Kavner: It’s entirely dependent on injury recovery, and if there’s any silver lining, it’s that none of the injuries to the players they’re counting on most appear to be season enders. At this point, I’m not expecting Sasaki to be a difference-maker this year. I view Kershaw as an important inning eater, and seeing him get to 3,000 strikeouts will be fun, but it’s hard to view him as someone the team can rely on come October. The Dodgers need some combination of Tyler Glasnow, Blake Snell and Ohtani looking right on the mound in the second half. If that happens, it could still end up one of the best units in baseball. Until then, though, Yoshinobu Yamamoto might be the most important player on the team. The Dodgers need him to be an ace right now, and he is answering that call.

As for the bullpen, it’s a bleak situation until Blake Treinen and Kirby Yates get back. It’s almost unfathomable the Dodgers are already at this point after revamping this offseason specifically so this wouldn’t occur, but they’re still 31-19 despite the rampant injury issues — it turns out having Ohtani, Mookie Betts and Freddie Freeman atop the lineup helps! — and I expect the offense to be good enough to keep the Dodgers at or near the top of the standings as they await pitching reinforcements.

Thosar: It’s anybody’s guess how effective Sasaki will be when he returns, but there’s an argument to be made that he’ll look more like himself once the shoulder injury is behind him, since it’s likely that the pain was impacting him on the mound more than we knew. As far as Kershaw, his drop in velocity, though expected, seems concerning. Opposing hitters can feast on a fastball that averaged 87.5 mph in five rehab starts this year. But there’s reason for optimism. A result of the Dodgers’ mess is how hard they’re pushing Yoshinobu Yamamoto to go the distance, so it’s even sweeter when he delivers — like he did on Tuesday night against the Diamondbacks. Yamamoto is the only dependable starter remaining in the Dodgers rotation, and if he can keep being their stopper until Los Angeles is closer to resembling full health, then the club should be able to survive this rotation depletion.

4.Both the Mets and Dodgers play in competitive divisions full of some of the National League’s finest. Which do you believe is more likely to be pushed into a wild card spot, rather than a division title, despite their obvious talent?

Kavner: The Mets. The Dodgers have seen their pitching crumble again and have played about as mediocre as they can through two months…and they’re still first place. The Padres, Giants and D-backs will push them, but when the Dodgers’ pitching staff gets healthier, they’re clearly the most talented team in their division. I think the Phillies (who have one of the scariest rotations in MLB despite their bullpen issues) and Braves (who are over .500 now as Ronald Acuña Jr. inches closer toward a return) will make the road to a division title much tougher for the Mets.

Thosar: The Mets. Though they looked dominant during their six-week stretch in first place this season, they haven’t finished the job and actually won the division since 2015, which is the same year they went to the World Series. And even though last year they exorcised some demons by defeating the Braves in a pennant race and eliminating the Phillies in the NLDS, that doesn’t remove the years of damage done to their psyche from those division rivals. Unless the Mets are able to pull away from the rest of the NL East in September, I’m expecting the division winner there to come down to the wire. The Dodgers, on the other hand, seem destined to run it back, with tons of recent examples of securing the division title on their side. (They won the NL West in 11 of the last 12 years).

5. This series features MLB’s two highest-paid players in Juan Soto (15 years, $765 million) and Shohei Ohtani (10 years, $700 million before accounting for deferrals). You’re building a team around one of these superstars, as they are today, with every year and dollar left on their contracts now your responsibility — who are you taking?

Kavner: Ohtani. Without question. I expect Soto will eventually look more comfortable than he has through the early portion of his Mets tenure, but I’ll still take Ohtani’s heavily-deferred deal — which might be the best bargain in sports history — over 15 years of Soto 10 times out of 10. If Ohtani can return to his previous form on the mound, that’s a potential Cy Young winner. If he can’t, he proved last year he’s still an MVP talent as an offensive force alone. I don’t see that changing for a long time. Add that ability to the unrivaled revenue streams he creates, and it’s a no-brainer for me. That contract will pay for itself.

Thosar: Ohtani. He’s a better hitter than Soto, and the way his contract is designed allows for more roster flexibility and the freedom to sign more superstars without being saddled by a massive annual average value that impacts other decision making. Plus, Ohtani might just come back and pitch like a Cy Young-caliber ace again. So at best, you’re getting two players for the price of one. And the worst-case scenario is that Ohtani is no longer an effective pitcher, and even then, he’ll still be a powerful designated hitter. Whereas with Soto, even though he’s four years younger than Ohtani, his long-term role with the Mets figures to be at DH, and that might happen sooner than later if his defense becomes a real problem. So I’m taking Ohtani every time.

Rowan Kavner is an MLB writer for FOX Sports. He previously covered the L.A. Dodgers, LA Clippers and Dallas Cowboys. An LSU grad, Rowan was born in California, grew up in Texas, then moved back to the West Coast in 2014. Follow him on Twitter at @RowanKavner.

Deesha Thosar is an MLB writer for FOX Sports. She previously covered the Mets as a beat reporter for the New York Daily News. The daughter of Indian immigrants, Deesha grew up on Long Island and now lives in Queens. Follow her on Twitter at @DeeshaThosar.

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