King Charles to walk diplomatic high wire with Ottawa speech

Hello and welcome to the working week.

Us Brits (like our American cousins) will begin the next seven days with a holiday. But not King Charles. He’s got work to do in one of his other realms and there is a lot of local excitement about this. Charles is going to make history by becoming the first reigning monarch this century (and the first in 50 years) to address the state opening of parliament in Ottawa, setting out the legislative agenda of Canada’s newly elected Prime Minister Mark Carney.

The king‘s health while travelling has been a talking point locally ahead of the two-day state visit, but more importantly, (constitutionally at least) there is concern about whether his speech will address the elephant in the room — Donald Trump — and how the US president, known to be a fan of the royals, will react. Charles and Queen Camilla will also perform the usual royal duties such as planting a tree, watching a 28-horse escort with military honours and, slightly more unusually, joining a game of street hockey.

The official state opening will provide Carney, who has been good so far with the big stuff like visiting the White House, a chance to shine at home with his first big domestic set-piece.

Election attention will focus on Poland, when the next president will be decided in a run-off vote on Sunday. The contest has turned into a cliffhanger after the pro-EU mayor of Warsaw, Rafał Trzaskowski, secured an unexpectedly narrow win over the nationalist candidate Karol Nawrocki in the first round. This week’s vote may well be decided by the two-fifths of voters who opted for candidates who failed to make the run-off.

The outcome is hugely consequential for the EU and the reform agenda of centre-right Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk. Victory for Nawrocki could augur the collapse of Tusk’s coalition government and a return to power of his Eurosceptic Law and Justice (PiS) party in 2027.

Company results are down to a trickle this week, partly because of the US financial markets being closed on Monday for Memorial Day.

Corporate news could well be generated by senior executives speaking at conferences, however. To take one example, Boeing CEO Kelly Ortberg is among those addressing the Bernstein Strategic Decisions Conference on Thursday. He is expected to cover several issues that have been making headlines recently, including 737 production stability as well as the outlook for the 777X, the F-47 fighter aircraft and Air Force One.

The central bankers are also out in force on the speaking circuit. There is a limited run of economic data, notably EU nation inflation reports and quarterly GDP estimates (and updated estimates) from the US, Canada, France, India, Brazil and Turkey. These will be watched, though G7 bond market trends, national and geopolitics will probably continue to be the overarching influence on market sentiment. More details below.

One more thing . . . 

Some of you have noted a glaring lack of comment in last week’s newsletter about Wednesday’s Europa league final. I’ll admit that, as a long-standing/suffering Spurs fan, I did not want to jinx it. Perhaps it worked. But there was also the fact that this feels like a much stronger news week for the beautiful game as the European football season reaches its climax. On Saturday Munich hosts the Champions League final between France’s Paris Saint-Germain (who have never won this trophy) and Inter Milan. It will be a moment — the 70th edition of Europe’s biggest club football tournament. If you want more FT insight on the business of football, read this.

Thank you for your feedback on this newsletter. You can email me at jonathan.moules@ft.com or, if you are reading this from your inbox, hit reply.

Key economic and company reports

Here is a more complete list of what to expect in terms of company reports and economic data this week.

Monday

• Spain: April producer price index (PPI) inflation rate data

• UK: late May bank holiday. Financial markets closed

• US: Memorial Day public holiday. Financial markets closed

Tuesday

• Japan: April services producer price index (PPI) inflation rate data

• UK: British Retail Consortium May Shop Price Index. Also, Adzuna Job Market Report

• US: Conference Board consumer confidence index

• Results: AutoZone Q3, Soitec FY

Wednesday

• Joint Opec and non-Opec ministerial monitoring committee meeting to review oil production output policy

• Australia: April consumer price index (CPI) inflation rate data

• France: Q1 GDP estimate and April PPI inflation rate data

• Germany: April labour market figures

• US: Federal Open Market Committee meeting minutes published

• Results: Agilent Technologies Q2, Aroundtown Q1, C&C Group FY, Grosvenor FY, HP Q2, Kingfisher Q1 trading update, Nvidia Q1, Pets at Home FY, Salesforce Q1

Thursday

• Boeing chief executive Kelly Ortberg to speak at the Bernstein Strategic Decisions Conference. Other executives taking part include Doug Ostermann, Stellantis chief financial officer, and John Waldron, president and chief operating officer at Goldman Sachs

• UK: Bank of England April capital issuance statistics

• US: second Q1 GDP estimate

• Results: Auto Trader FY, Bath & Body Works Q1, Best Buy Q1, Costco Wholesale Q3, Dell Technologies Q1, Gap Q1, Hollywood Bowl HY, Nationwide Building Society FY, Royal Bank of Canada Q2

Friday

• Australia: April retail sales figures

• Brazil: Q1 GDP estimate

• Canada: Q1 GDP estimate

• Germany: May CPI and harmonised index of consumer prices (HICP) inflation rate data

• India: Q4 GDP estimate

• Turkey: Q1 GDP estimate

• US: April personal income and outlays data

World events

Finally, here is a rundown of other events and milestones this week.

Monday

• Australia: National Sorry Day, commemorating the forced removal of Aboriginal children from their parents

• Canada: King Charles and Queen Camilla begin a visit to the country where he remains head of state

• Malaysia: 46th Asean Summit is held in Kuala Lumpur

• Romania: Nicușor Dan, Romania’s president-elect, is expected to be sworn in at a ceremony in the nation’s parliament building in Bucharest

Tuesday

• Belgium: EU General Affairs Council meeting in Brussels. The agenda includes how to simplify and strengthen the carbon border adjustment mechanism, preparations for the June European Council meeting and Spain’s request to include Catalan, Basque and Galician in the EU’s language regime regulation

• Canada: King Charles addresses the state opening of parliament in Ottawa, the first time a ruling monarch has conducted this duty in person in 50 years

• Indonesia: France’s President Emmanuel Macron and his wife begin a two-day state visit to the south-east Asian nation, promoting trade agreements and pitching France as a reliable alternative to US-China rivalry

• US: 2025 Spelling Bee competition begins with preliminary rounds, televised from the Gaylord National Resort & Convention Center in National Harbor, Maryland. The winner will be crowned at the finals on Thursday

Wednesday

• 600th day since the start of the Hamas-Israel conflict, after Hamas launched its attack on Israel on October 7 2023

• UK: New rules covering gross misconduct in the police in England and Wales come into force. Settlement payments by London’s Metropolitan Police for misconduct cases more than doubled in the 2023-24 financial year to £7.6mn, according to data obtained by the FT

Thursday

• Ascension day, a Christian holiday celebrated in many countries

• UK: 75th anniversary of the first pilot episode of The Archers being broadcast on the BBC’s Midlands Home Service. Set in the fictional village of Ambridge, the show is now the world’s longest-running soap opera

• US: Former Goldman Sachs partner Tim Leissner is scheduled to be sentenced in federal court in Brooklyn, having pleaded guilty to corruption charges for his role in helping loot billions of dollars from Malaysia’s 1MDB development fund. Leissner testified at the April 2022 trial of Roger Ng, a former managing director at Goldman Sachs, who was found guilty on three counts

Friday

• Singapore: a key Asian defence summit, the IISS Shangri-La Dialogue, begins. The three-day gathering will include discussions on the region’s most pressing security challenges

Saturday

• The Anglo American demerger of Anglo American Platinum is expected to become effective, following approval by shareholders at April’s general meeting.

• Germany: Uefa Champions League final in Munich

Sunday

• First day of summer in the northern hemisphere, according to the meteorological season

• Opec+ meeting of the eight key countries to review market conditions, conformity and compensation, and decide on July production levels

• Poland: presidential election run-off vote

• UK: a ban on the sale of disposable vapes comes into effect