Welcome to Foreign Policy’s South Asia Brief.

The highlights this week: India’s ruling Bharatiya Janata Party scores a victory in the Delhi legislature for the first time in decades, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi arrives in Washington to meet U.S. President Donald Trump, and Bangladesh’s interim government cracks down on political unrest.

BJP Wins Big in Capital Region

It is hard to overstate the significance of the victory of India’s ruling Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) in last Wednesday’s election held in the National Capital Territory of Delhi, especially after the BJP’s performance in last year’s national elections forced it to rule in coalition for the first time.

The BJP won in Delhi for the first time in nearly 30 years; the party had even lost polls there in 2015 and 2020, when it was otherwise especially strong electorally. According to the official results released on Saturday, the BJP won 48 of 70 seats in the Delhi legislature. By comparison, it won just eight in 2020 and three in 2015.

In doing so, the BJP defeated the Aam Aadmi Party (AAP), which had ruled Delhi for a decade. The party and its leader, Arvind Kejriwal, a former tax bureaucrat, ran on a platform of anti-corruption and basic services delivery to build a large support base.

Kejriwal was a thorn in Modi’s side—not only for consolidating local power in India’s capital but also because he seemed to steal the prime minister’s thunder. Kejriwal cast himself as a non-dynastic and hard-nosed reformer, the image that Modi sought to project when he started campaigning for national office. Both leaders have contrasted themselves with the main opposition Indian National Congress party.

Last week, the BJP beat the AAP at its own game. It argued that it can do good governance, development, and service delivery better than the AAP and highlighted worsening problems in New Delhi, such as air and water pollution. The BJP also won over a critical constituency in Delhi—middle-class voters—by flagging initiatives intended to ease economic stress, such as the income tax cuts included in the federal budget unveiled on Feb. 1.

The BJP largely avoided stoking communalism—long a party hallmark but one that might have been a liability in last year’s national elections. However, some ugly rhetoric from the ruling party—including accusing the AAP of helping undocumented Bangladeshi immigrants to seek refuge in New Delhi—fell back on divisive Hindu-nationalist themes.

One can reasonably counter that the BJP’s campaign strategy shouldn’t be given outsized credit: Anti-incumbency sentiment often makes Indian state governments electorally vulnerable. And then there are the corruption charges that burdened the AAP leadership, including those that put Kejriwal in jail for five months last year. (The AAP and its supporters argue that these charges are politically motivated.)

Still, the key takeaway is that the BJP is now in a commanding political position, having fully bounced back from its underwhelming performance in the national elections. The triumph in Delhi follows two other state election victories in Haryana and Maharashtra. The BJP has come a long way in just a couple of years, after a new opposition alliance and a few key state election losses prompted some predictions that its juggernaut had peaked.

That means that Modi is especially confident as he arrives in Washington this week to meet U.S. President Donald Trump. But he will need to bank on his political capital to get him through considerable challenges back home, especially an economy growing slower than predicted and burdened by persistent inflation, youth unemployment, and a struggling manufacturing sector.

What We’re Following

Modi in Washington. Modi is set to arrive in Washington on Wednesday for a two-day visit. Because the Trump administration has only been in office for a few weeks and many key India posts aren’t yet filled, Modi’s engagements are unlikely to produce splashy new deals. But the trip is an opportunity for Modi and Trump to renew their friendship and to reassert their commitment to U.S.-India partnership.

Trump could relay demands to Modi that he has conveyed to other leaders: reducing tariffs, taking back undocumented immigrants, and buying more U.S. products, including energy and weapons. India already took important preemptive steps—including some tariff reductions—that will likely shield Modi from especially uncomfortable requests from Trump.

India also may have received a gift from the Trump administration ahead of Modi’s arrival. On Monday, the White House released an executive order pausing enforcement of the Foreign Corrupt Practices Act (FCPA), which the U.S. Justice Department used last year to indict Indian billionaire Gautam Adani on fraud charges; Adani has a long-running friendship with Modi and is close to the Indian government.

The executive order stipulates that the attorney general will “review in detail all existing FCPA investigations or enforcement actions,” suggesting that the administration may look into the Adani indictment. Adani will likely have Trump’s sympathy: He’s a highly successful businessman who has praised Trump and promised to invest in the United States and create jobs. But Trump may also view the Adani indictment as something to leverage, to pressure New Delhi to take steps that would serve Trump’s objectives—such as reducing tariffs.

Unrest in Bangladesh. On Monday, Bangladeshi police said they had arrested more than 1,300 people described as violent supporters of former Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina, who fled the country last August amid mass protests. The interim government’s interior minister, Jahangir Alam Chowdhury, said the campaign would continue “until we uproot the devils.”

The announcement followed a few days of unrest, which began last week on the six-month anniversary of the movement that ousted Hasina. Mobs attacked the homes of Hasina and her late father, former Bangladeshi President Sheikh Mujibur Rahman, after they heard that Hasina would make a speech broadcasted online. This led to street fights between anti-Hasina activists and members of Hasina’s Awami League party.

Anger toward Hasina and her party still runs deep due to her repressive rule, the brutality of her security forces during her final days in power, and the refusal of the Awami League to acknowledge its past acts. Last Friday, members of the student activist group that led the movement against Hasina were attacked in the capital of Dhaka.

Based on conversations during my recent visit to Dhaka, the Awami League—which has called for protests this month—is unlikely to be able to mount a comeback and might not be allowed to contest elections, whenever they take place, unless it can show contrition rather than defiance. None of this bodes well for the future of Bangladesh’s democracy—only prolonging the acute polarization that has long defined the country’s politics.

Opposition protests in Pakistan. Thousands of protesters marched in Pakistan’s Khyber Pakhtunkhwa province last Saturday to mark the one-year anniversary of national elections that the political opposition insists were rigged. Independents backed by the Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI) party won a majority of seats but not enough to form a government.

The PTI, led by jailed former Prime Minister Imran Khan, says it won more than enough seats to rule on its own and that it should be in power now.

The latest protests appeared to be a disappointment for the party, as they were limited to Khyber Pakhtunkhwa. Pakistani officials banned protests in the provinces of Balochistan and Punjab as well as the capital of Islamabad. The Khyber Pakhtunkhwa government is led by the PTI, which made it easier to stage protests there.

However, the PTI might be heartened by the fact that four other opposition groups joined its protests. The party has vowed in recent days to form a new opposition alliance. Though the opposition parties don’t see eye to eye on all issues, they seem to agree that last year’s election was rigged—which the PTI might look to leverage for future mobilization against the state.

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Under the Radar

U.S. citizen Onijah Andrew Robinson departed Pakistan last Friday, ending a strange saga that stretches back to last October. That month, the 33-year-old arrived in Karachi hoping to meet and marry a man that she met online, identified as Nidal Ahmed Memon, 18.

Memon spurned Robinson, reportedly because his family didn’t approve of the marriage. But Robinson refused to leave the country after her tourist visa expired. She remained in Karachi and gave interviews to Pakistani media, often appearing erratic while making requests of either Memon or Pakistani authorities. Robinson’s ordeal captivated Pakistanis on social media.

But perhaps what stands out most is how well Robinson was treated during her time in Pakistan. Journalists and police engaged with her politely. The government of Sindh province and the JDC Foundation charity worked together to get her a ticket home and covered her expenses. Authorities offered to extend her visa, and she received care at a Karachi hospital.

Pakistan’s careful handling of Robinson and her delicate situation pushes back against some perceptions that Pakistan isn’t safe for U.S. citizens. But it has also prompted some Pakistanis to point to double standards: Though Robinson was treated well, many Pakistanis are denied access to basic services, Pakistani women face discrimination, and Afghan refugees face deportation.