2025 NFL regular-season win totals: Back 49ers, Panthers to eclipse win totals
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Now that we’ve seen the 2025 NFL schedules for all 32 teams, we can better assess how successful — or how unsuccessful — these squads will be this upcoming season.
There were three teams whose win totals stood out to me in particular: San Francisco, New York Giants and Carolina.
And based on what we know about these teams from last year and how they moved in the offseason, I’m ready to throw down some cash on this trio.
Let’s take a look at what I’m on so far for teams’ regular-season win totals.
San Francisco 49ers Over/Under 10.5
At first blush, this win total seems high for a team that won six games in 2024, with a roster that seems to lose talent each offseason.
In 2023, the 49ers went to the Super Bowl and lost in overtime to the Kansas City Chiefs. Last season, the Niners suffered a rash of injuries to their superstars that exposed their lack of depth and poor drafting over the last four years.
However, when healthy — which is fair to assume will happen this season, as injury luck tends to even out year over year — the 49ers still have a talented roster.
Christian McCaffrey, Trent Williams, Fred Warner, Nick Bosa and George Kittle are some of the better players at their positions. Quarterback Brock Purdy, fresh off a massive contract extension, is a good-to-above-average signal caller. It’s a roster that can win games at a high level again in 2025.
More than anything else, the 49ers have an easy schedule.
They face their NFL West opponents six times and are better than the Seahawks and Cardinals. The 49ers face the NFC South and AFC South, plus three other games against other fourth-place division winners like the Browns and Giants. The 49ers will be favored in at least 15 of their 17 games.
The Niners are still in a Super Bowl window and will play to win all their games. They might cruise over 10.5 without having to work too hard.
PICK: 49ers Over 10.5 wins
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New York Giants Over/Under 5.5 wins
In a typical season win-total preview, I’d take the Over for a team that went 1-8 in one-score games like the Giants did in 2024.
They only won three games and had an awful offense outside rookie Malik Nabers. They did, however, sport a good defense. That’s one of the reasons their games stayed close.
The Giants added Abdul Carter and quarterback Jaxson Dart in the first round of the draft. If their offense can match the production of the defense — or just not be a reason the Giants can’t compete — they should play better this season. That all makes sense in my mind.
However …
New York’s schedule is absolutely brutal and feels unfair to a team that lacked success in 2024. The Giants play their three division opponents six times. The Eagles and Commanders are better. The Cowboys should be better. The Giants, like the rest of the NFC East, play the AFC West and NFC North. That’s at least seven teams better than the Giants and the eighth team (Raiders) might end the season with a better record.
New York also has the 49ers and a game at the Saints. The Giants will be an underdog in 16 of 17 games.
Finally, I’m concerned about them imploding if they start the season 1-8 or even 0-9. Their first nine games are Washington, Dallas, Kansas City, Los Angeles Chargers, New Orleans, Philadelphia, Denver, Philadelphia and San Francisco. Even starting 0-5 would get the coaching staff fired, a quarterback benched and it would be overall chaotic.
The Giants would be well Under their win total with that madness. So Giants Under 5.5 wins is how I’d play it.
PICK: Giants Under 5.5 wins
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Carolina Panthers Over/Under 6.5 wins
I believe the Panthers are live to win the NFC South after a roller-coaster 2024 season.
They hired Dan Morgan as their new general manager and paired him with Dave Canales to lead the team. Canales’ goal in 2024 was to determine if quarterback Bryce Young — the Panthers’ 2023 first overall pick — was their quarterback of the future.
Young got benched early last season but returned to the starting lineup with massive success on the field that did not equal wins. Both can be true. The Panthers lost to the Chiefs by three, to Tampa in overtime and then by six points to the Eagles. All three were winnable games. They ended the season winning four of their last nine overall.
Carolina continued to overhaul its roster in the offseason, with additions on defense in free agency and offense in the draft. This roster is better heading into 2025. Young will play with more confidence, and Carolina is ready to win.
Sometimes you have to lose small before you win small before you win big.
Carolina also has a favorable schedule with its division games. All six are winnable. Panthers get the Jets, Cardinals, Jaguars and Dolphins. Carolina just needs seven wins to get Over. I’m on it.
PICK: Panthers Over 6.5 wins
Geoff Schwartz is an NFL analyst for FOX Sports. He played eight seasons in the NFL for five different teams. He started at right tackle for the University of Oregon for three seasons and was a second-team All-Pac-12 selection his senior year. Follow him on Twitter @GeoffSchwartz.
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